Wednesday, February 07, 2007

Global Cooling Off Period Needed

It is amusing to watch and read the Media reporting on Global Warming. The latest position is that we should all believe in “Warming Caused by Humans” because of scientific consensus. That is, a number of scientists have agreed that the earth is warming, that the warming is caused by human activity and that the warming is bad.

They are laboring under the notion that consensus = fact. Some of us think, no, we know, that consensus = groupthink. Groupthink is seldom a good substitute for fact. Groupthink is not even scientific.

Can 50,000 Frenchmen be wrong? Of course they can be wrong. The history of Science is full of episodes about the lone individual who recognized truth when he saw it, and paid the price when he faced the wrath of groupthinkers. James Clerk Maxwell, for instance, was almost universally sneered at by scientists when he connected light with electromagnetism.

No doubt some scientists are convinced that global warming is caused by humans and that it is bad. One can rightfully ask, “How many of these scientists are meteorologists?” And the answer is not many. Few real meteorologists are so dogmatic as to make such dire predictions that show up in the Media. In fact, some meteorologists have dared to question groupthink.

So there are two sides to this question, after all. One is groupthink and the other is heresy. There are always more groupthinkers than heretics, so consensus is always going to be powerful.

What is the answer? Will groupthink finally be found to be correct?

Clearly the average man is due a cooling-off period while each side searches for very hard to obtain facts. It is too early to conclude anything.


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